Where next with Brexit?

I didn't vote in the referendum about Brexit, and have oft been chastened about this as a result. The main reason I did not vote was because either outcome was likely to be filled with discontent amongst great swathes of people and the agenda behind the referendum being offered had nothing to do with the vote itself.

We are in a right pickle and no mistake. 2 years later and the date to leave the EU long gone and we look no nearer to solving the puzzle than we did the day after the referendum results came in.

• This referendum has caused such a deep divide amongst the people of this country it might never get resolved in some quarters
• This referendum was actually designed to settle the EU debate once and for all and went horribly wrong when the expected result was not returned. It has since gone on to be a catalyst to question the very approach to politics in this country
• A result which the majority in 'the house' never expected and don't actually support anyway... and yet are now faced with attempting to deliver something which will leave millions of people un-appeased. We are in "devil you do, devil you don't" territory and there are angry people out there amongst the electorate
• It is looking more inevitable that the EU is more likely to leave us before we get a chance to leave it

We now find ourselves as a nation in the most intriguing of positions...

The house of commons has put forward a motion to make leaving the EU without a deal as unlawful. So if Theresa May finds herself on April 17th with no deal having been agreed has she effectively broken the law? ... is that even allowed? ... who knows... we are paddling our canoe in uncharted waters. 

Also Theresa May is not the only player in this decision is she not? ... the EU has stated if the deals already on the table are not acceptable, there are no others, and if nothing changes by April 16th... technically we have left without a deal... the clock ticks ever closer... Unfortunately none of the deals have been approved... all rejected 3 times at least!

The EU have managed to manipulate themselves into an enviable position of convincing the media that they have done all they can, they have been very flexible... and it is the bungling indecision of the British government that has created this mess... Allegedly Britain has failed to clearly state what it is she wants thus far... I think perhaps we have, but the EU didn't like those ideas either.

So what of Theresa May? 

Well she has run out of wriggle room. The EU won't budge, the House won't support any of the current proposals and she might be breaking the law if come close of play Tuesday 16th April we haven't ratified any deal. The EU's position is no more extensions unless a deal is agreed (one of the rejected ones that is), then they'll consider the extension till the 22nd May (Before EU elections)

What could happen?

Well in actual fact, Theresa May has been given a bit of an escape route (by design or otherwise). She could just resign. Now... in fairness she could even sue for constructive dismissal I think as there has definitely been some bullying going on and some manipulation too. 

This is a golden exit pass for Theresa May. Put in place over 2 years ago as a safe pair of hands when it went wrong, she has effectively done the job which was required of her. Kept the ship afloat at whatever cost, hang in there... and she has. No one else wanted the poisoned chalice. Now she can go though. Just not turn up for work any more. Go see the Queen and that's it.

I think many people are now actually feeling sorry for Theresa May. She has tried her best to get this sorted, but the House hasn't played ball (most of them want to remain anyway, even she did really). They wouldn't blame her for this actually, it's not her fault, no one supported her efforts. I think she might even go down in history as a bit of a martyr who eventually fell on her own sword.

However... the UK is now in a very weakened state. Theresa May's departure although entirely inconvenient for the Tories is highly probable and would spark an immediate stampede away from being nominated as her successor.

We can't afford a snap election, so 'they' say, really, who worked that out, financially? or politically? ... either way, what else can be done? No obvious successor who would relish the challenge of coming to power, swiftly followed by the end of their political career.

Snap Election

Difficult to predict this one... I can't see the Conservatives getting many votes after this debacle... I can't see labour and the severe leftest policies exciting any of the big businesses either... So who would we vote for? ... You know I think the vote might struggle to get much participation... and that's leading to a country without a government... it's been done before... plenty of civil servants to keep the machine rolling. But big new territory for Britain...

Back to the EU question

Let's say we hit April 17th... Theresa May is gone... hang on... we have a new story for the EU now, we could return under these circumstances and say 'poor us' ... we are going through a bit of turmoil back at blighty don't you know... err... 

No deal, no government, things are looking a bit bleak. To avoid a complete disaster remaining in the EU would at least put this on hold and give us a breathing space. If we leave the EU at this time we all lose... the UK, Europe and of course us... the peeps at the bottom of the pile.

What might that request look like?

Hi Brussels... Can we come up with a new plan? ... we'll remain in the EU for a while until we can get our act together, we're going to have an election, actually on the same day as you guys 22nd May and of course we'll join in with that if that's ok? ... if you LET us do this then we'll get right on with it... 

Then... when the dust has settled a bit we'll have a bunch of new faces in place at Britain HQ and we'll be able to get this EU thing sorted out for good.

That deal might look a little like this :-

1. No power in any decision making in the EU
2. Accept whatever EU rules are passed without question
3. Renegotiate only when the EU members agree we are ready to do that

Basically the worst possible deal ever 'bar none' for Britain. Now you can truthfully see what threatening to leave the EU looks like. But on the upside... it's business as usual and the catastrophe of catastrophe's has been averted.

Except... This is a best deal for the EU...  Britain has been an annoying member ever since "anyone can remember" now she is begging to remain at the party... should we let them stay?  Mmmm 

This is just as bad for the remainers as it is for the leavers (well maybe not quite). The leavers haven't received what they were promised "Leave means leave". So here we are politics and democracy on its knees.

If nothing else this brings into question the whole political system in this country and must signal the beginning of a huge rethink. What we have is broken and no longer provides the 'service expected of it' for the people it is supposed to serve.

Self interested politicians have now created an end game fiasco which could spark the beginning of renewed division in Britain... this is not the end of Brexit... it is just the beginning of the next phase.

Centralised democracy isn't the solution anymore. A system where almost half of those that voted have to accept the decision by a small margin and are then bullied into something they don't like... It might have been the same the other way around... but it wasn't. This form of governance no longer meets the needs of modern society... 

What to do? 

There are no answers in Westminster or Whitehall as everything there is geared to sustaining an outdated, corrupt, sluggish, over engineered operating system that has just had the mother of all irrecoverable crashes... the reboot switch has also melted!

It is time for us to create something new. Brexit happened for a reason... there is a learning here... Brexit served as a massive reality check, that is, to highlight we are witnessing the final death throws of a political system that has overstayed its welcome.

We have a chance to do something Great here in Great Britain but it will need a huge shift... are we ready for it yet? ... or do we need to endure yet more pain and suffering?

What about the Bankers and the Oligarchs?

Well if we do remain, and the EU allow us to stay does that mean that these bankers and oligarchs with their offshore tax havens are going to get their 'just desserts' and  to be forced to cough up? ... can there possibly be a silver lining in all of this? 

Well... they have had over two years to prepare for this now... they are ready... they no longer care... hence... let the Brexit slaughter begin!